Shades of 1948 in 2020

Before Donald Trump, the biggest upset among Presidential elections in the post-war era belonged to Harry Truman's victory over Thomas Dewey in 1948. Dewey was widely expected to win the election over the incumbent Truman, so much so that the Chicago Daily Tribune ran a now infamous headline "Dewey Defeats Truman".

Truman won despite a split in the Democratic party that ended up costing him several Southern states to Strom Thurmond. Rather than take his predicted defeat lying down, Truman ran a spirited campaign. He made a particular target of the Republican-controlled 80th Congress, labeling them as "do-nothing". Dewey, in comparison, ran a comparatively safe campaign and declined to attack Truman.

The 80th Congress was not by any means "do-nothing". They passed a number of landmark bills,  highlighted by the Marshall Plan. Truman did, however, catch the Congress flat-footed when he called a special session in July 1948 and dared them to pass the party platform adopted by Dewey. The "do-nothing" charge worked, as both the Senate and the House flipped back to the Democrats along with Truman's victory.

Donald Trump has taken to labeling the Democratic controlled House as "do-nothing", a charge he hopes stick heading into this year's election. Whether the charge is accurate does not matter any more than it did in 1948.

Since the 116th Congress began, the focus has been on investigating and impeaching Trump. Even the media has mostly peddled this line, with minimal focus on the House acquiescing to Trump's new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. This actually helps reinforce Trump's "do-nothing" charge by keeping the focus on the impeachment and not on any other legislation the House has passed.

Donald Trump knows how to energize his base, as he clearly demonstrated in 2016 when he promised to go to Washington to "drain the swamp". Blasting the Democratic House as "do-nothing" is an extension of this tactic and if 1948 is any indication, it could not only win Trump a second term, but also give his party the House back.