Michael Bloomberg may be a Factor in the Democratic Primaries

With all of the attention in the Democratic race for the White House focused squarely on Iowa and New Hampshire, it is easy to forget that those two races have comparatively little to offer in terms of available delegates. The four elections in the month of February have a combined 155 delegates up for grabs. The biggest haul of delegates awaits in March, with Super Tuesday having 1344 delegates being allotted in one day. Another 365 delegates will be decided a week after Super Tuesday.

When Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race by expressing dissatisfaction with the current field, he elected not to spend campaign funds in the four earliest races, but decided to build his campaign apparatus in the twenty states that comprise the lion's share of the available delegates on March 3rd and 10th.

Bloomberg appears to be getting some results from this strategy. In the Real Clear Politics polling aggregate for the Democratic nomination, Bloomberg has moved into fourth place behind Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. He is in fourth place in the 270toWin aggregate as well. While polling is relatively sparse outside of February's states, there are signs that Bloomberg is gaining some traction in some of the races in March.

A poll released today in Florida showed Bloomberg in second, albeit well behind Biden. This is significant though as this poll only showed Biden and Bloomberg above the 15% threshold which is required to received delegates in a primary. Even though Bloomberg was down significantly to Biden in the Sunshine States, he would get a disproportionate number of Florida's 219 delegates since there are only two candidates that would receive delegates in that primary. Similarly, a poll from last weekend showed Bloomberg in second place in Missouri as well, though below the delegate threshold at present.

If Bloomberg starts capturing delegates in the March primaries, that will make him a factor as the race moves towards the convention. In a year where a brokered convention has a better chance than normal of occurring, any delegates Bloomberg gains would be invaluable as leverage at convention. If his current trajectory continues, which is probable given his head start in advertising in the later races, the odds of a brokered convention will only increase.