Kansas Special Election Followed Recent National Trend of Rural vs Urban

Last year as President Trump was winning the White House, a trend that had been building over the past two decades came into sharp relief. The best indicator of how one voted in the last election was simply whether one lived in a rural setting, or an urban setting. 

As one can see, the rural areas of the nation went to Donald Trump and they did so by extreme margins. In some counties, Trump received 80% of the vote. While Hillary Clinton did win urban areas handily, she did not win by enough in those areas to offset the shellacking she took in more rural areas. 

That is exactly what happened again last night in Kansas' 4th Congressional District. James Thompson put up a good fight, more so than expected in that he only lost by 7% as opposed to 31% that the Democratic candidate had lost by in the last election. Thompson did win Sedgwick County by 1800 votes, a staggering turnaround from the 44,000 vote win that Mike Pompeo earned in the county merely five months ago. 

However, coming up with a win in Kansas' most populous city was not nearly enough to make up for the dismal results that Thompson received in the other 16 counties that make up this district. In these more rural counties, Estes received 10,000 more votes than Thompson did, far more than enough to make up for losing Wichita. Estes' share of the vote averaged over 70% in these other counties and two of them went more than 80% his way. Granted, these are only a few hundred to a couple of thousand voters in each of these counties, but winning by those margins adds up. 

Still though, there is the matter of this race ending up 24 points closer than it did five months ago. There is much that could be read into this, but I'm going to focus on three main reasons why it was so close:

Poor Turnout

The first reason is the most obvious one. Last November, over 275,000 votes were cast in the 4th Congressional District race. Yesterday, the unofficial totals show that only 120,000 votes were cast in the special election, a drop of 56%. For the individual parties, there was a drop of 62% in Republican votes, a drop of 32% among Democrat votes, and a staggering 73% drop in Libertarian votes. 

While the drop in the Republican share is significant compared to the drop in Democrat votes, it was not enough to offset the two to one margin that Republicans enjoy over Democrats in the district. It shows that Republicans can survive poor turnout and low motivation in this district just based on the margins they enjoy in voter registration. That will not bode well in elections that have more regular turnout, such as state elections in 2018. 

James Thompson Ran a More Active Campaign

Thompson ran a far more active campaign than Estes did. Estes noticeably missed out on numerous forums and debates while Thompson was bringing in people to run phone banks for him in a get out the vote campaign. Estes did raise more money than Thompson, but only by $59,000. In the latter stages of the race, more money was thrown in on both sides as it became obvious the race was tightening. 

Estes only belatedly reacted to Thompson's surge in the last week of the campaign by bringing in national heavyweights to boost his campaign. Texas Senator Ted Cruz came to Wichita to campaign on Estes' behalf and President Trump both tweeted and recorded a robocall for Estes. It is unlikely that these had any effect on the trajectory of the race, other than give off a sense of panic on the part of the Republicans. 

The campaign styles of Estes and Thompson in some ways reflect the Presidential election from last year. The Republicans chose a "safe" candidate that did little to get in their own way, but also did not give a compelling reason to get people out to vote for them. Thompson refused to go down without a fight and ran a more active campaign along similar lines to Donald Trump. However, Thompson had to overcome a 30 point disadvantage in order to win; Trump certainly did not have to work from that far behind. 

It is probable that a more moderate candidate than Thompson that ran the same campaign he did might have been able to stage the upset. As I wrote before, Kansans seem to prefer more moderate leadership than either extreme. That trend, however, does lead into my final point:

There are Reasons for Both Parties to Worry in 2018

Most of the closeness of this race I think can be attributed to the first two points I laid out. However, there is a trend that Thompson tried to use to his advantage that may have contributed in part to the 24 point swing the district saw. 

Ron Estes was the State Treasurer for the Brownback administration for the past six years. As noted before, Brownback is currently the most unpopular governor in the United States right now. Much like Barack Obama took advantage of George Bush's unpopularity in 2008, Democrats are hoping to do the take advantage of Brownback's unpopularity next year.  

A 24 point swing would seemingly be a step in the right direction. However, Democrats had an opportunity to hand a loss to someone at the heart of the Brownback administration...and failed to do so. They could not win even though Estes received less than half of the votes that Pompeo did last year and despite the fact their candidate arguably ran a better campaign. The disadvantage that Democrats have in Kansas, especially in the rural counties, may turn out to be too great to overcome in most cases. 

Then there is the matter of the Democratic party suffering from infighting, again. In the Progressive vs Elite dichotomy of the party right now, Thompson fell more into the Progressive vein. This may have had a hand in why the Kansas Democrats and the DNC refused to donate money to Thompson's campaign. It may have also been that they did not believe he had a chance of winning, but that does not mesh with the way the campaign ended. It may be the leadership of the Democratic Party still does not trust its more progressive wing. 

Republicans naturally have to worry too. This was supposed to be a safe race and they belatedly had to pour money into it from the RNC to help Estes out and send heavyweights in to help as well. That does not bode well if another "safe" candidate ends up being nominated in state and Congressional elections for next year. 

At the end of the day though, the factors that led into this election turning out the way it did may have little or nothing to do with the state elections that will occur 19 months from now. It is even less likely this race will give any indication as to which way the House and Senate elections will turn out either. But if the parties are planning to use this race as a bellwether for next year, there are many mistakes they need to learn from and advantages they need to capitalize on. 

The United States Risks a Larger Conflict in Attacking Syria

On the hundredth anniversary of the United States declaring war on Germany, the United States tonight declared a de facto war on Syria. In retaliation to reports that the Assad regime had, again, launched a chemical attack on its own people, the United States launched cruise missiles at the military base that the chemical attacks had allegedly been launched from. The target was reportedly the facility itself, not at people in particular. Still though, in launching this attack, the United States by default declared itself at war with the Assad regime, even if President Trump did not go to Congress for a declaration of war as stipulated by the Constitution.

I am not going to waste words grousing about the lack of a declaration of war from Congress. The United States has not officially declared war on anyone since 1941. What I am concerned about are the international ramifications that such an act could wrought.

The United States has been in and out of the Middle East for decades now. The region has been a hotbed of unrest since the end of World War II, with many nations in the region at times either openly hostile to the United States, mainly for supporting Israel, or at best enjoyed a cool relationship as Western nations lined the pockets of Arabs sitting on vast reserves of oil. There is a stark difference between past actions in the area and now, however.

In 1991 when the United States sent its military into Kuwait to liberate the nation from an Iraqi invasion, it did so with broad international support and the knowledge that Saddam Hussein did not have any friends. In 2003, when the United States overthrew Hussein for good, it did so again safe in the knowledge that there would be no broad international retaliation. In the nearly fifteen years since, though, things have changed in the Middle East. Assad is not like Saddam Hussein. Assad has friends in Tehran and even more worrisome, in Moscow.

When revolts exploded across the Arab world in 2011, they did so without much more than tacit help from Washington. The Obama administration was content to let events occur as they would after having promised to pull out of the region following the second Iraq conflict. With war rampaging across the region and without American influence to steer the conflicts one way or the other, the region, Syria in particular, fragmented.

The Syrian Civil War has been going since 2011 and involves four main groups in Syria and Iraq. There is the Assad regime, the rebels, the Kurds, and the Islamic State. In the power vacuum left in the region by the pullout of American troops from Iraq in that same year, other nations saw an opportunity to advance their own national interests by getting involved in the conflict.

Towards the end of the Obama administration, Russia and Iran began to take an active hand propping up the Assad regime. As a result, Assad has grown more emboldened and has turned the tide against the rebels, even using chemical weapons against them. Assad committed these atrocities despite a warning from President Obama in 2012 that such barbarism would bring certain retaliation from the United States in his "red line" speech. When the United States did nothing even after the Assad regime went ahead and used chemical weapons on the rebels repeatedly during President Obama's second term, it is not hard to imagine that Assad thought he could act with impunity. Being backed by Moscow would have certainly helped.

In a way, President Trump is just fulfilling a threat that President Obama made but never carried out. It would have been much easier to accomplish this in 2013 when the chemical attacks first started though. Since then, Russia has gotten entangled in the region and allied itself to the Assad regime. In attacking the military base, the United States directly attacked a Russian ally.

It is hard to know exactly what happens next. But if history is a lesson, then there could be grim consequences for this attack.

The situation is similar to the Balkan crisis in 1914. When Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary was assassinated, Austria-Hungary blamed Serbia and gave them an ultimatum. When Serbia did not comply, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Serbia, however, was an ally of Russia, who felt the need to protect its Slavic brothers and sisters from the Germanic nations. Russia declared war on Austria-Hungary in retaliation. Germany declared war on Russia for declaring war on Austria-Hungary. For good measure, Germany also declared war on France preemptively and drew the United Kingdom into the fray by invading Belgium.

All it takes is one diplomatic crisis in a volatile region to plunge the world into the depths of war. Syria might not be a Slavic cousin of Russia, but Vladimir Putin is not a person who would let an attack on one of his allies go unnoticed. In the past three years, Russia has grown emboldened too, annexing parts of the Ukraine, threatening the Baltic states, and asserting its power in the Middle East. Putin has spent the last seventeen years finding ways to expand Russian influence in ways not seen since the Soviet Union collapsed. It is unlikely that he would be willing to give up on that so easily just because the United States is more belligerent now under President Trump than it had been under President Obama.

Drawing the United States into a larger conflict with Russia is a risk that this administration ran when it attacked the Assad regime. It needs to be prepared for the consequences if Vladimir Putin decides he has too much at stake in growing Russia's prestige globally to allow him to back down against the United States.

Remarks on the Centennial of American Entry into World War I

On April 6th, 1917, the United States Congress voted overwhelmingly to declare war on the German Empire. This vote came four days after President Woodrow Wilson had gone to Capitol Hill to ask for the declaration of war. Wilson had idealized the war, stating it was an opportunity to "make the world safe for democracy" and that it was the moral obligation of the United States to fight in the war.

It should be noted that it had been nearly three years since the war had started at this point. At the beginning, Americans were strictly neutral, although American businesses and banks began to profit from loans of money and materials to the belligerent nations. Most of these materials ended up in Allied hands because of Britain's blockade of Germany.

Even as America's economic output was starting to turn to the Allies, public opinion generally did not. That began to change in May 1915 when a German submarine torpedoed and sank the Lusitania, an act that killed 128 Americans. Germany promised to stop using unrestricted submarine warfare after the incident and a full blown diplomatic crisis was averted, but Americans were beginning to turn on Germany. It did not help that reports were leaking out of occupied Belgium of German atrocities in that country.

President Wilson was reelected in 1916 running on a campaign slogan of "He kept us out of war." However, as the calendar turned and 1917 started, events began that forced Wilson's hand. Germany decided early in 1917 that they would resume unrestricted submarine warfare, which included attacking neutral merchant vessels. Several American ships were sunk in March, outraging Americans and turning public opinion heavily against Germany.

Germany knew that they would provoke the United States into war when they resumed unrestricted submarine warfare. They sought another ally with which they could distract the United States long enough to win the war in Europe. Mexico was the easy choice, as American troops had entered Mexico twice during the Wilson Presidency. Germany sent a message to Mexico, promising to aid them in the recapture of lands lost in the Mexican Cession for Mexico's help against the United States.

There were two problems with that plan. One was that Mexico was in no shape to conduct a war against the United States while the Mexican Revolution was going on. In essence, Mexico had been dealing with a multi-sided civil war since 1910 that the United States at times had gotten directly involved in. Second, the message was intercepted by Great Britain and sent to the United States. Wilson let media outlets publish the Zimmerman Telegram at the end of February 1917, furthering outrage against Germany.

The majority of World War I happened before the United States got involved. The American Expeditionary Force took some time to develop and only saw a few months of fighting, just long enough to blunt the last German offensive of the war and turn the tide. The United States was not even a true part of the Allies, acting independently of French and British troops on the Western Front. But it was enough to beat Germany and force an armistice.

The United States' involvement can be viewed as another step along the road to being the world's only superpower. That road started when the United States routed Spain in 1898 and would be fully realized in 1945 with the end of World War II. But American involvement in the First World War is important for the simple reason that it was the first time the United States had been drawn into a European conflict, something Americans had avoided since the advent of the nation.

The United States did not fully commit to the world stage following World War I, however. The most glaring example of this was the rejection of the League of Nations, a precursor of sorts to the United Nations. The United States still meddled in European affairs in the 1920s though, most notably with a series of disarmament treaties. With the advent of the Great Depression, the United States left Europe to its own devices, which was decisive in the rise of totalitarian states in the 1930s.

It's tough to say what would be the right choice to make in the post war world. Clearly the United States had to go to war; American merchants were being attacked repeatedly by Germany and the United States has the right to protect their national interests. But the same question that can be asked today should be applied to the 1920s world must be asked: To what extent should, if at all, the United States get involved in international affairs?

If the United States had maintained the same level of involvement in the 30s as they had in the 20s, it is probably that Adolf Hitler would not have been as belligerent as he ended up being. Knowing an immediate retaliation by the United States would have probably dissuaded the German Chancellor from reoccupying the Rhineland, annexing Austria, annexing the Sudetenland, the rest of Czechoslovakia, and then finally just invading Poland.

At what point do the interests of the world at large circumvent the interests of the United States? Do they at all? This is a question not only for the past, but for the present, and the future as well, as long as the United States is the preeminent global power.

2017 Special Elections: Kansas' Fourth Congressional District

Three days after Donald Trump was sworn into the Presidency, Representative Mike Pompeo resigned from his Congressional seat after he had been selected and confirmed as the Director of the CIA. Within a few days, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback called for a special election to select a representative for the now vacant seat. This election was set for Tuesday, April 11th.

The Fourth District of Kansas comprises the counties of Barber, Butler, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Elk, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt, Sedgwick, Stafford, Sumner, and part of Pawnee County. Most of the people in this district live in or around Wichita, the most populous city in Kansas.

There were not any primaries for this election. The three major parties in Kansas (Republican, Democrat, Libertarian) each had a convention to select a candidate to participate in the general election. These conventions were held in February, with the Republicans having theirs on February 9th and the Democrats and Libertarians both had theirs on the 11th.

For the Republicans, the primary candidates were State Treasurer Ron Estes, former Congressman Todd Tiahrt, attorney George Bruce, talk show host Joseph Ashby, and Trump campaign staffer Alan Cobb. Ashby and Bruce were eliminated on the first ballot and Estes won the second ballot with 52% of the vote.

For the Democrats, the primary candidates were attorney James Thompson, businesswoman Laura Lombard, former Kansas House Minority Leader Dennis McKinney, police officer Charlie Walker, and former House candidate Robert Tillman. Lombard, Walker, and Tillman were eliminated on the first ballot and Thompson won the second ballot with 54% of the vote.

For the Libertarians, the primary candidates were educator Chris Rockhold, former House candidate Gordon Bakken, and farmer John Kostner. Rockhold won the nomination on the first ballot with 85% of the vote.

There are no independent candidates for this seat. If there was to be any independent candidates in the race, they would have needed to obtain 3,000 signatures from registered voters by February 18th to successfully petition to be on the ballot. No candidate obtained enough signatures by the deadline.

It would be easy just to say that this is a safe Republican seat and call it a day. In the last four elections, when Pompeo was first elected in 2010, the Republican candidate has won by an average of 29 points. I want to dig around a little bit and see if there is any under current that may be missed.

Kansas will have elections for all of its executive offices next year, with some candidates having already declared that they are running for governor. I've been looking at this race as a preview of sorts for the elections that will be occurring next year. For my purposes, we will look at the Republican vs Democratic dichotomy as the Libertarian party is not yet big enough to have a serious effect on the two party system.

Ron Estes is the State Treasurer and has been since the Brownback administration started in 2011. While Sam Brownback is currently one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, Estes seems to have kept out of the unpopularity plaguing the government in Topeka. To be fair to him, he is the treasurer, a relatively innocuous position. In 2014, while Brownback won a close election to keep the governor's seat by 3.5%, Estes routed his opponent by 35%.

Given that it was 2014 when that happened and the Brownback administration has since seen its popularity collapse, it would be interesting to see how far being part of the administration could hurt Estes. It is feasible this trend could show up in the votes next week; after all voters starting punishing Brownback last year by electing a more moderate legislature. In addition, tying Estes to the Brownback administration has been something that Democrat James Thompson has been trying to do as well as a means to undercut his chances as well.

How far that effort would go remains to be seen. Any effort by Thompson to drag down Estes with Brownback may be limited by Thompson himself. In the current "establishment vs. progressive" fight within the Democratic party nationally, Thompson falls in the progressive category to the point that Bernie Sanders came to Kansas to stump for him. That may work well for the Democratic party in Kansas; after all Bernie Sanders did win the Kansas caucus over Hillary Clinton last year. However, in a congressional district where Republican voters outnumber Democratic voters nearly two to one, that might not get Thompson far.

In the 2016 state legislature elections (and one United States House district), Kansans sent a more politically diverse group of politicians to Topeka for the next two years. What they did not do, however, was send a great number of Democrats to the legislature. In the State House, the Democrats gained 12 seats, but still only have 40 of 125 seats. In the Senate, they only gained one seat to hold 9 out of 40 seats. Kansans do want change from Brownback's policies based off of this, but are not willing to go all the way over to the other side of the aisle to do that, instead preferring a more moderate tone.

If Thompson had fallen into the more moderate, establishment wing of the Democratic party, he would have had at least a sporting chance to flip the seat. As it is, there is not much to suggest there will be an upset next Tuesday. There's only been one poll conducted and it corroborates this by show ing Estes with a solid 24 point lead over Thompson. It's hard to imagine that this house seat would flip parties, but depending on how close the results end up could be a very telling sign in elections to come.

The Endless Campaign Trail: 2017 Special Election Season

The first cycle of elections under the Presidency of Donald Trump is about to commence. There are only a few elections during the year after a presidential election. There are two gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and those will be covered at different time. For now, this first posting of this series will contend with the special elections for the United States House of Representatives.

Due to various reasons, there are now five vacant seats in the House. They are as follows:

California's 34th District, which will have a primary election on April 4th and a general election on June 6th if necessary. A candidate will need to get 50% of the vote in the primary, otherwise the top two candidates from the primary will compete in the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Kansas' 4th District, which will have a general election on April 11th

Georgia's 6th District, which will have an initial election on April 25th, and a runoff election if necessary on June 20th

South Carolina's 5th District, which will have a primary election on May 2nd, then a runoff election if necessary on May 16th if a primary candidate doesn't have a majority. The general election is also June 20th

Montana's At-Large District, which will have a general election on May 25th.

None of these races will flip the House one way or the other, but they could be indicative of election trends that may crop up in 2018 or even as far as 2020. For the most part, I will talk about the results of these elections as they come in, but I might do a preview for them as well. The only race I know I will preview for sure is the Kansas election, as that is where I am from.

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (First Four Day 2)

Just win 6 more games. That's all a team needs to do to win the NCAA Title now. While not remotely practical for many teams, until the clock hits triple zeros, no team is officially eliminated from title contention.

Teams will be listed according to seed and bracket. This will be updated every night of the NCAA Tournament, with some comments as teams advance. For now, the 64 teams that could hypothetically win an NCAA Championship.

East Region
#1 Villanova
#2 Duke
#3 Baylor
#4 Florida
#5 Virginia
#6 Southern Methodist
#7 South Carolina
#8 Wisconsin
#9 Virginia Tech
#10 Marquette
#11 Providence
#11 Southern California

USC was down by as much as 17 in the second half before they stormed back to go ahead with six minutes in the game and held on down the stretch. They will play SMU on Friday.

#12 UNC Wilmington
#13 East Tennessee State
#14 New Mexico State
#15 Troy
#16 Mount St. Mary's

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas
#2 Louisville
#3 Oregon
#4 Purdue
#5 Iowa State
#6 Creighton
#7 Michigan
#8 Miami
#9 Michigan State
#10 Oklahoma State
#11 Rhode Island
#12 Nevada
#13 Vermont
#14 Iona
#15 Jacksonville State
#16 North Carolina Central
#16 UC Davis

UC Davis led a close game throughout the second half and held on to win over North Carolina Central 67-63. They will play Kansas on Friday.

South Region
#1 North Carolina
#2 Kentucky
#3 UCLA
#4 Butler
#5 Minnesota
#6 Cincinnati
#7 Dayton
#8 Arkansas
#9 Seton Hall
#10 Wichita State
#11 Kansas State
#12 Middle Tennessee
#13 Winthrop
#14 Kent State
#15 Northern Kentucky
#16 Texas Southern

West Region
#1 Gonzaga
#2 Arizona
#3 Florida State
#4 West Virginia
#5 Notre Dame
#6 Maryland
#7 Saint Mary's
#8 Northwestern
#9 Vanderbilt
#10 Virginia Commonwealth
#11 Xavier
#12 Princeton
#13 Bucknell
#14 Florida Gulf Coast
#15 North Dakota
#16 South Dakota State

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (First Four Day 1)

Just win 6 (or 7) games. That's all a team needs to do to win the NCAA Title now. While not remotely practical for many teams, until the clock hits triple zeros, no team is officially eliminated from title contention.

Teams will be listed according to seed and bracket. This will be updated every night of the NCAA Tournament, with some comments as teams advance. For now, the 66 teams that could hypothetically win an NCAA Championship.

East Region
#1 Villanova
#2 Duke
#3 Baylor
#4 Florida
#5 Virginia
#6 Southern Methodist
#7 South Carolina
#8 Wisconsin
#9 Virginia Tech
#10 Marquette
#11 Providence
#11 Southern California
#12 UNC Wilmington
#13 East Tennessee State
#14 New Mexico State
#15 Troy
#16 Mount St. Mary's

Mount St. Mary's advanced to a first round matchup with Villanova after beating New Orleans 67-66 on a go ahead jumper by Junior Robinson with 1:27 to go in regulation.

#16 New Orleans

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas
#2 Louisville
#3 Oregon
#4 Purdue
#5 Iowa State
#6 Creighton
#7 Michigan
#8 Miami
#9 Michigan State
#10 Oklahoma State
#11 Rhode Island
#12 Nevada
#13 Vermont
#14 Iona
#15 Jacksonville State
#16 North Carolina Central
#16 UC Davis

South Region
#1 North Carolina
#2 Kentucky
#3 UCLA
#4 Butler
#5 Minnesota
#6 Cincinnati
#7 Dayton
#8 Arkansas
#9 Seton Hall
#10 Wichita State
#11 Wake Forest
#11 Kansas State

Kansas State led most of the way and made their free throws down the stretch as the Wildcats beat Wake Forest 95-88 in a First Four game. Kansas State will advance to play Cincinnati.

#12 Middle Tennessee
#13 Winthrop
#14 Kent State
#15 Northern Kentucky
#16 Texas Southern

West Region
#1 Gonzaga
#2 Arizona
#3 Florida State
#4 West Virginia
#5 Notre Dame
#6 Maryland
#7 Saint Mary's
#8 Northwestern
#9 Vanderbilt
#10 Virginia Commonwealth
#11 Xavier
#12 Princeton
#13 Bucknell
#14 Florida Gulf Coast
#15 North Dakota
#16 South Dakota State

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Pre-NCAA Tournament)

Just win 6 (or 7) games. That's all a team needs to do to win the NCAA Title now. While not remotely practical for many teams, until the clock hits triple zeros, no team is officially eliminated from title contention.

Teams will be listed according to seed and bracket. This will be updated every night of the NCAA Tournament, with some comments as teams advance. For now, the 68 teams that could hypothetically win an NCAA Championship.

East Region
#1 Villanova
#2 Duke
#3 Baylor
#4 Florida
#5 Virginia
#6 Southern Methodist
#7 South Carolina
#8 Wisconsin
#9 Virginia Tech
#10 Marquette
#11 Providence
#11 Southern California
#12 UNC Wilmington
#13 East Tennessee State
#14 New Mexico State
#15 Troy
#16 Mount St. Mary's
#16 New Orleans

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas
#2 Louisville
#3 Oregon
#4 Purdue
#5 Iowa State
#6 Creighton
#7 Michigan
#8 Miami
#9 Michigan State
#10 Oklahoma State
#11 Rhode Island
#12 Nevada
#13 Vermont
#14 Iona
#15 Jacksonville State
#16 North Carolina Central
#16 UC Davis

South Region
#1 North Carolina
#2 Kentucky
#3 UCLA
#4 Butler
#5 Minnesota
#6 Cincinnati
#7 Dayton
#8 Arkansas
#9 Seton Hall
#10 Wichita State
#11 Wake Forest
#11 Kansas State
#12 Middle Tennessee
#13 Winthrop
#14 Kent State
#15 Northern Kentucky
#16 Texas Southern

West Region
#1 Gonzaga
#2 Arizona
#3 Florida State
#4 West Virginia
#5 Notre Dame
#6 Maryland
#7 Saint Mary's
#8 Northwestern
#9 Vanderbilt
#10 Virginia Commonwealth
#11 Xavier
#12 Princeton
#13 Bucknell
#14 Florida Gulf Coast
#15 North Dakota
#16 South Dakota State

Teams That Can Still Win A National Championship (Championship Week Final)

This will be the last update before the NCAA Tournament field is announced. The 69 teams will be organized by automatic qualifiers, safe at-large bids, and the bubble.

Automatic Bids (32 teams)
Duke
Vermont
Rhode Island
Florida Gulf Coast
Iowa State
Villanova
North Dakota
Winthrop
UC Davis
UNC Wilmington
Middle Tennessee
Northern Kentucky
Princeton
Iona
Kent State
North Carolina Central
Wichita State
Nevada
Mount St. Mary's
Jacksonville State
Arizona
Bucknell
Kentucky
East Tennessee State
New Orleans
Texas Southern
South Dakota State
Troy
Gonzaga
New Mexico State
Michigan
Southern Methodist

Safe At-Large Bids (27 teams)
Virginia Commonwealth
Dayton
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
West Virginia
Kansas
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Creighton
Butler
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Maryland
Oregon
UCLA
Arkansas
South Carolina
Florida
Saint Mary's
Wisconsin
Cincinnati

Bubble (11 teams)
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Kansas State
Seton Hall
Xavier
Providence
Marquette
Michigan State
Illinois State
USC
Vanderbilt

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 13)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
UCF
Connecticut

Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Dayton
Richmond
Davidson

ACC
Duke
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse (?)
Wake Forest (?)

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Iowa State
West Virginia
Kansas
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Kansas State (?)

Big East
Villanova
Creighton
Butler
Seton Hall (?)
Xavier (?)
Providence (?)
Marquette (?)

Big Sky
North Dakota
Weber State

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Maryland
Michigan State (?)

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine

Colonial
UNC Wilmington

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Marshall

Horizon
Northern Kentucky

Ivy League
Princeton
Yale
Harvard
Penn

MAAC
Iona

MAC
Kent State
Akron

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
USC (?)

Patriot
Bucknell

SEC
Kentucky
Arkansas
South Carolina
Florida

Vanderbilt (?)
Alabama

Southern
East Tennessee State

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC
Texas Southern

Summit League
South Dakota State

Sun Belt
Texas State
Troy
UT Arlington
Georgia State

WAC
New Mexico State
CSU Bakersfield

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 12)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
UCF
Connecticut
Houston
Memphis
Tulsa
East Carolina

Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Richmond
Davidson
Dayton
Saint Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington

ACC
Notre Dame
Duke
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse (?)
Wake Forest (?)

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Iowa State
West Virginia
Kansas
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Kansas State (?)
TCU

Big East
Villanova
Creighton
Butler
Seton Hall (?)
Xavier (?)
Providence (?)
Marquette (?)

Big Sky
North Dakota
Weber State
Idaho
Eastern Washington

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Michigan
Purdue
Maryland
Michigan State (?)
Indiana

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine
CS Fullerton
Long Beach State

Colonial
UNC Wilmington

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
Louisiana Tech
UTEP

Horizon
Northern Kentucky

Ivy League
Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Penn

MAAC
Iona

MAC
Akron
Kent State
Ohio
Ball State

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Howard

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State
San Diego State

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
USC (?)
California

Patriot
Bucknell

SEC
Kentucky
Arkansas
Alabama
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Ole Miss

Southern
East Tennessee State

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Stephen F. Austin
Sam Houston State

SWAC
Texas Southern
Southern
Grambling

Summit League
South Dakota State

Sun Belt
UT Arlington
Georgia State
Texas State
Troy
Coastal Carolina
UL Lafayette
Georgia Southern
Louisiana-Monroe

WAC
CSU Bakersfield
New Mexico State
UMKC
Utah Valley

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 11)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
Houston
UCF
Connecticut
Memphis
Tulsa
East Carolina
Temple
Tulane
South Florida

Atlantic 10
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington
Davidson
La Salle
Fordham
Saint Louis
Massachusetts

ACC
North Carolina
Florida State
Notre Dame
Duke
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse (?)
Wake Forest (?)

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Iowa State
West Virginia
Kansas State
TCU
Kansas
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Texas

Big East
Villanova
Creighton
Seton Hall
Xavier
Butler
Providence (?)
Marquette (?)
St. John's

Big Sky
North Dakota
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Idaho
Montana
Sacramento State
Portland State
Southern Utah

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Purdue
Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Michigan
Indiana
Iowa
Illinois
Rutgers
Penn State

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine
CS Fullerton
Long Beach State
Hawaii
CSU Northridge
Cal Poly
UC Riverside

Colonial
UNC Wilmington

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Marshall
UTEP
Rice
Old Dominion
UAB
UT San Antonio

Horizon
Northern Kentucky

Ivy League
Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Penn

MAAC
Iona

MAC
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Ball State
Buffalo
Western Michigan
Toledo
Eastern Michigan

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Howard
Morgan State
Hampton

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State
San Diego State
New Mexico
Boise State
Utah State
Air Force

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
California
USC (?)
Utah
Arizona State
Colorado

Patriot
Bucknell

SEC
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Missouri

Southern
East Tennessee State

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Stephen F. Austin
Sam Houston State
Houston Baptist
Lamar

SWAC
Texas Southern
Southern
Grambling

Summit League
South Dakota State

Sun Belt
UT Arlington
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Coastal Carolina
UL Lafayette
Troy
Louisiana-Monroe

WAC
CSU Bakersfield
New Mexico State
UMKC
Utah Valley
Seattle
UT Rio Grande Valley
Chicago State

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 10)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
Houston
UCF
Connecticut
Memphis
Tulsa
Temple
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida

Atlantic 10
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Davidson
Fordham
Saint Louis
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Duquesne

ACC
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Notre Dame
Duke
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse (?)
Wake Forest (?)
Pittsburgh
Clemson

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
TCU
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma

Big East
Villanova
Butler
Creighton
Seton Hall
Providence
Xavier
Marquette
St. John's
Georgetown
DePaul

Big Sky
North Dakota
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Idaho
Montana
Sacramento State
Portland State
Southern Utah

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Purdue
Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Michigan
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Penn State
Ohio State
Nebraska

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine
CS Fullerton
Hawaii
Long Beach State
CSU Northridge
Cal Poly
UC Riverside

Colonial
UNC Wilmington

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Old Dominion
UTEP
Rice
Marshall
UAB
UT San Antonio
Western Kentucky
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Southern Miss

Horizon
Northern Kentucky

Ivy League
Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Penn

MAAC
Iona

MAC
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Buffalo
Ball State
Western Michigan
Toledo
Eastern Michigan

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Hampton
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Howard
South Carolina State
Bethune-Cookman

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Utah State
Air Force
Wyoming
San Jose State
UNLV

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
California
Utah
USC
Arizona State
Colorado
Stanford
Washington State
Washington
Oregon State

Patriot
Bucknell
Lehigh

SEC
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Missouri
Auburn
LSU

Southern
East Tennessee State

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Baptist
Sam Houston State
Lamar
Southeast Louisiana
Central Arkansas

SWAC
Texas Southern
Southern
Grambling

Summit League
South Dakota State

Sun Belt
UT Arlington
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Coastal Carolina
UL Lafayette
Troy
Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas State
South Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock
Appalachian State

WAC
CSU Bakersfield
New Mexico State
UMKC
Seattle
Utah Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley
Chicago State

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's

2017 Championship Week Primer: Ivy League

For the first time in five years of these Championship Week Primers, I will do a preview for an Ivy League Tournament. This is the first time that the Ivy League has had a postseason tournament, in previous years choosing to send their regular season champion to the NCAA Tournament. The Ivy League has had some success in recent years, be it Harvard in 2013 and 2014 or Yale in 2016. All of those teams won in the Round of 64.

Princeton won the Ivy League this year with a perfect 14-0 record. They are projected as a 13 seed at present, which could be upset territory. The Ivy League is naturally a one bid league though, so the Tigers will have to win this tournament to go dancing.

The top four teams will be in this inaugural tournament. It will take place at the Palestra at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia on March 11th and 12th

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th
#4 Penn vs. #1 Princeton
#3 Yale vs. #2 Harvard

Championship-Sunday, March 12th
It is a short tournament so there is not much to talk about. Princeton has dominated this conference from one end to the other and this formality will only confirm that.

Harvard 55, Princeton 66

2017 Championship Week Primer: American

When the Big East tried to expand falling several of its members bolting for the ACC and the Big 12, the Catholic schools of the conference revolted and formed the new Big East, taking the name with them. The teams cast off by the new Big East formed the American, along with the schools that had were going to join the Big East originally. Despite the founding members of the conference being apart of a high major conference, the American is decidedly a mid major conference now, with only two or three teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

Southern Methodist won the conference this year, a season after being banned from postseason play. They are projected to be a 5 seed, along with the conference runner-up Cincinnati. Houston has been getting some looks of late, but they will need to do a lot to get to the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars may just need to win the conference tournament to go dancing.

The tournament will take place from March 9th to 12th at the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut. All eleven teams of the conference will participate with the top five seeds getting a bye to the quarterfinals.

First Round-Thursday, March 9th
#9 East Carolina vs. #8 Temple
#10 Tulane vs. #7 Tulsa
#11 South Florida vs. #6 Connecticut

Quarterfinals-Friday, March 10th
#9 East Carolina vs. #1 Southern Methodist
#5 Memphis vs. #4 Central Florida
#10 Tulane vs. #2 Cincinnati 
#6 Connecticut vs. #3 Houston

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th
#4 Central Florida vs. #1 Southern Methodist
#6 Connecticut vs. #2 Cincinnati 

Championship-Sunday, March 12th
The two teams split the season series, but Southern Methodist has been the more dominant team in the American, winning 13 in a row going into this tournament. Cincinnati won't have to worry about being left out when the bracket is announced shortly after this game ends, but Southern Methodist is the one that will have the automatic bid.

Cincinnati 64, Southern Methodist 70

2017 Championship Week Primer: WAC

If there was to be a conference that lost out on realignment, it was the WAC. Many of the teams left for other conferences and the WAC replaced them with what remained from the collapse of the now defunct Great West Conference. There are now only eight teams left in the WAC, but it does have one advantage over the Great West; its tournament champion gets to go to the NCAA Tournament. 

 

Cal State Bakersfield won the conference by a game over New Mexico State. The Roadrunners have been trending on the 14 and 15 line, moving up recently as lower seeded teams advanced to the NCAA Tournament in other conference championships. Bakersfield won the tournament last year as well. 

 

As Grand Canyon is completing its transition to Division I, they will not be eligible for the postseason just yet. The other seven teams will participate in the conference tournament with Bakersfield getting a bye to the semifinals. 

 

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th 

#5 Seattle vs. #4 Utah Valley

#7 Chicago State vs. #2 New Mexico State 

#6 UT Rio Grande Valley vs. #3 UMKC

 

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th 

#5 Seattle vs. #1 Cal State Bakersfield 

#3 UMKC vs. #2 New Mexico State

 

Championship-Saturday, March 11th 

New Mexico State and Bakersfield split the season series, with both teams winning at home. New Mexico State struggled down the stretch somewhat, losing three of four games at one point, including a 19 point loss at Bakersfield. The Roadrunners on the other hand, romped down the stretch, only dropping a game at the end of the season when the conference championship had already been wrapped up. I believe they will beat the Aggies again and go to the NCAA Tournament again. 

 

New Mexico State 55, Cal State Bakersfield 69

2017 Championship Week Primer: Big West

Typically, the Big West churns out lower seeded teams for the NCAA Tournament that will not win a game in the NCAA Tournament. Last year was an exception to that rule though, when Hawaii defeated #4 California in the Round of 64 to get the first Big West tournament win in the Round of 64 since 2004. This year's chances, however, don't look nearly as promising. 

 

UC Irvine won the conference this year by a game over UC Davis. For most of the season, the Anteaters were projected as a 16 seed, but as other conference tournaments went to underseeded teams, UC Irvine has inched up to the 15 line. It doesn't change their overall quality, its just an indication that they are viewed in a better light than upset minded teams like South Dakota State 

 

The top eight teams in the conference will participate in the tournament. It will be held from March 9th to 11th at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The teams that make it to the semifinals will be reseeded so that the highest remaining seed plays the lowest remaining seed. 

 

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th 

#8 UC Riverside vs. #1 UC Irvine

#5 Hawaii vs. #4 Long Beach State 

#7 Cal Poly vs. #2 UC Davis

#6 Cal State Northridge vs. #3 Cal State Fullerton

 

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th 

#4 Long Beach State vs. #1 UC Irvine

#3 Cal State Fullerton vs. #2 UC Davis

 

Championship-Saturday, March 11th 

In two meetings this year, the two teams beat each other on their own home court, with Fullerton winning a close one and Irvine blowing out the Titans by 20. I think that this one will be closer, but that the Anteaters will still be able to go the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd time in 3 years. 

 

Cal State Fullerton 70, UC Irvine 78

2017 Championship Week Primer: Sun Belt

The Sun Belt lost a lot of talented teams during the realignments of a few years ago. They made up some of that ground by picking up teams from lesser conferences and have stabilized at 12 teams. As for the NCAA Tournament, the Sun Belt landed Arkansas-Little Rock in the Big Dance last year who promptly upstaged #5 Purdue in the Round of 64. The year before that, Georgia Southern downed #3 Baylor in the Round of 64.

This year's champion UT-Arlington is projected at a 12 seed as well, though as mentioned in other primers, they would have to win the conference tournament to make the tournament in the first place. No other teams are going to get to go to the NCAA Tournament; whoever wins this tournament goes dancing.

All twelve teams will take part in the tournament. The top four teams received a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place at the Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, Louisiana on March 8th, and March 10th-12th.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#9 South Alabama vs. #8 Coastal Carolina
#12 Louisiana-Monroe vs. #5 Arkansas State
#10 Little Rock vs. #7 Louisiana-Lafayette
#11 Appalachian State vs. #6 Troy

Quarterfinals-Friday, March 10th
#8 Coastal Carolina vs. #1 UT-Arlington
#5 Arkansas State vs. #4 Texas State
#7 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #2 Georgia State
#6 Troy vs. #3 Georgia Southern

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th
#5 Arkansas State vs. #1 UT-Arlington
#6 Troy vs. #2 Georgia State 

Championship-Sunday, March 12th
In the only matchup this year that Arlington and Georgia State played, the top seeded Mavericks won by a point at Georgia State. It stands to reason that they can do it again on a neutral court and earn a trip to the Big Dance where they will try to keep the Sun Belt's winning streak going.

Georgia State 72, UT Arlington 78

2017 Championship Week Primer: SEC

For the most part over the past eight years, Kentucky has been the class of the SEC, with Florida sharing or taking the crown at points during that stretch. The Gators almost did again this year when Kentucky went on a swoon at the end of January, losing 3 of 4 games. But when it came down the stretch, the Wildcats were the ones that came out on top, finishing two games ahead of Florida.

Those two teams are going to the NCAA Tournament, with the Wildcats going in right now as a 2 seed and Florida as a 3 seed. Elsewhere, South Carolina as an 8 seed and Arkansas as a 9 seed look t be in the tournament as well. The only bubble team in the SEC is Vanderbilt, who is on the razor's edge on the bubble as a 12 seed. Vanderbilt needs to do some work in the SEC Tournament to feel good about their chances.

The SEC has 14 teams and all of them will take place in the tournament. The top four seeds got a double bye to the quarterfinals while the fifth through tenth seeds only got a single bye. The tournament will take place from March 8th to March 12th at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#13 Louisiana State vs. #12 Mississippi State 
#14 Missouri vs. #11 Auburn 

Second Round-Thursday, March 9th
#9 Tennessee vs. #8 Georgia 
#12 Mississippi State vs. #5 Alabama
#10 Texas A&M vs. #7 Vanderbilt
#11 Auburn vs. #6 Ole Miss

Quarterfinals-Friday, March 10th
#8 Georgia vs. #1 Kentucky
#5 Alabama vs. #4 South Carolina
#7 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Florida
#6 Ole Miss vs. #3 Arkansas

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th
#5 Alabama vs. #1 Kentucky
#3 Arkansas vs. #2 Florida

Championship-Sunday, March 12th
It seems only fitting that these two teams have a rubber match to determine the SEC champion and who will get to cut down the nets less than an hour before the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed. Kentucky has become one of the most dangerous teams in the country and have not lost in a long time. They might even be able to poach a top seed in the NCAA Tournament if North Carolina stumbles or the committee decides they like Kentucky's resume more than Gonzaga's. It starts in Nashville though and the Wildcats will come away victorious.

Florida 66, Kentucky 76

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 9)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
Houston
UCF
Connecticut
Memphis
Tulsa
Temple
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida

Atlantic 10
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Davidson
Fordham
Saint Louis
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Duquesne

ACC
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Notre Dame
Duke
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Clemson
Georgia Tech
North Carolina State
Boston College

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech
Texas
Oklahoma

Big East
Villanova
Butler
Creighton
Seton Hall
Providence
Xavier
Marquette
St. John's
Georgetown
DePaul

Big Sky
North Dakota
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Idaho
Montana
Sacramento State
Portland State
Southern Utah
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Idaho State

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Purdue
Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Michigan
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Nebraska
Rutgers

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine
CS Fullerton
Hawaii
Long Beach State
CSU Northridge
Cal Poly
UC Riverside

Colonial
UNC Wilmington

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Old Dominion
UTEP
Rice
Marshall
UAB
Western Kentucky
UT San Antonio
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Southern Miss

Horizon
Northern Kentucky
Milwaukee

Ivy League
Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Penn

MAAC
Iona

MAC
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Buffalo
Ball State
Western Michigan
Toledo
Eastern Michigan

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Hampton
Maryland-Eastern Shore
South Carolina State
Bethune-Cookman
Howard
Delaware State
Florida A&M

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Wyoming
San Jose State
Utah State
Air Force
UNLV

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's
Saint Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
California
Utah
USC
Arizona State
Colorado
Stanford
Washington State
Washington
Oregon State

Patriot
Bucknell
Lehigh

SEC
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Mississippi State
Missouri
LSU

Southern
East Tennessee State

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Baptist
Sam Houston State
Lamar
Southeast Louisiana
Central Arkansas

SWAC
Texas Southern
Southern
Grambling
Jackson State
Prairie View A&M
Alabama State
Mississippi Valley State

Summit League
South Dakota State
Omaha

Sun Belt
UT Arlington
Arkansas State
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Coastal Carolina
UL Lafayette
Troy
South Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock
Appalachian State
Louisiana-Monroe

WAC
CSU Bakersfield
New Mexico State
UMKC
Seattle
Utah Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley
Chicago State

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's

2017 Championship Week Primer: Big Ten

Compared to recent years, the Big Ten definitely had a downswing in performance this year. This showed up in a painful way on February 11th when the NCAA Committee released an early preview of the bracket's top 16 teams and the Big Ten was a glaring omission from it. The closest team at that time, Wisconsin, has since had a meltdown by losing five of their last seven games of the season. The conference champion, Purdue is the only team left that could possibly get a top four seed and they currently are on the four line in bracket projections.

Besides Purdue, the other teams projected to get an at large bid are Minnesota (6 seed), Maryland (6 seed), Wisconsin (despite their collapse they are on the 7 line), and Michigan (9 seed). Of special note, the last major conference team to not make the NCAA Tournament, the oft-maligned Northwestern Wildcats are at long, long last projected to make the Big Dance, currently as a 9 seed.

The Big Ten's bubble teams include Michigan State, currently in the field as a 10 seed, and then Illinois and more recently Iowa. Both the Illini and the Hawkeyes are out of the projected field at present so they will have some work to do.

All 14 teams of the conference made the tournament. The top four seeds got a double bye to the quarterfinals and the fifth through tenth seeds got a single bye. The tournament will take place at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#13 Penn State vs. #12 Nebraska
#14 Rutgers vs. #11 Ohio State

Second Round-Thursday, March 9th
#9 Illinois vs. #8 Michigan 
#12 Nebraska vs. #5 Michigan State
#10 Indiana vs. #7 Iowa
#11 Ohio State vs. #6 Northwestern

Quarterfinals-Friday, March 10th
#8 Michigan vs. #1 Purdue
#5 Michigan State vs. #4 Minnesota
#7 Iowa vs. #2 Wisconsin
#6 Northwestern vs. #3 Maryland

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th
#8 Michigan vs. #5 Michigan State
#3 Maryland vs. #2 Wisconsin

Championship-Sunday, March 12th
If Michigan was in any danger of missing the tournament and there is to be some mild concern even if a team is projected as a single digit seed with five days to Selection Sunday, they will have already erased them by making the title game run. Wisconsin will have cured what ails them by making a run as well, getting them on even footing for the tournament. As for the automatic bid, Wisconsin will have played one less game by this point and being less tired will help as the Badgers win the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan 60, Wisconsin 68

2017 Championship Week Primer: Atlantic 10

It has been a long time since the Atlantic 10 was actually ten teams. For at least the last decade, the Atlantic 10 has had at least 14 teams, maxing out as high as 16 teams. This year, the conference is back to 14 teams, which still makes the conference name a misnomer. 

 

The Atlantic 10 has fluctuated back and forth with respect to relative strength of the conference. This year is a down year, with two teams going to the NCAA Tournament for sure, conference champion Dayton (7 seed) and Virginia Commonwealth (9 seed). Rhode Island has been in consideration as well, currently ranking among the First Four Teams out. They'll need to do some work in the conference tournament and get some help from elsewhere to get on the good side of the cutline. 

 

All 14 teams made the Atlantic 10 tournament. The top four seeds got a double bye to the quarterfinals, while the fifth through tenth seeds got a single bye. The Tournament will take place at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 

 

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th 

#13 St. Joseph's vs. #12 Massachusetts

#14 Duquesne vs. #11 Saint Louis

 

Second Round-Thursday, March 9th 

#9 Davidson vs. #8 La Salle

#12 Massachusetts vs. #5 Saint Bonaventure

#10 Fordham vs. #7 George Mason

#11 Saint Louis vs. #6 George Washington

 

Quarterfinals-Friday, March 10th 

#9 Davidson vs. #1 Dayton 

#5 Saint Bonaventure vs. #4 Rhode Island

#7 George Mason vs. #2 Virginia Commonwealth

#6 George Washington vs. #3 Richmond 

 

Semifinals-Saturday, March 11th 

#5 Saint Bonaventure vs. #1 Dayton 

#3 Richmond vs. #2 Virginia Commonwealth

 

Championship-Sunday, March 12th

Dayton was able to win the Atlantic 10 championship in the last week of the regular season with a win over VCU. With both of these teams going to the NCAA Tournament, this game is for seeding and bragging rights. I believe that the Rams will take this one, winning in a close game as the other two games they have played this year have gone. 

 

Virginia Commonwealth 70, Dayton 68

2017 Championship Week Primer: Southland

The Southland conference has been dominated by Stephen F. Austin for the past few years. The Lumberjacks were so good that their success carried over the NCAA Tournament, where they upstaged #5 VCU in 2014, #3 West Virginia in 2016 and had it not been for a tip in shot by #6 Notre Dame, would have made the Sweet Sixteen last year as well. 

 

Stephen F. Austin's coach Brad Underwood left for Oklahoma State this year, however, and the Lumberjacks fell from the top perch. New Orleans won the conference this year by a game over a three way tie between the Lumberjacks, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Houston Baptist. New Orleans is projected as a solid 16 seed, probably to a First Four game as well should they win this tournament. 

 

The top eight teams made the tournament out of a conference of 14 teams. The top two seeds received a double bye to the semifinals and the third and fourth seed received a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place in the Merrell Center in Katy, Texas. 

 

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th 

#8 Central Arkansas vs. #5 Sam Houston State 

#7 Southeastern Louisiana vs. #6 Lamar 

 

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th 

#5 Sam Houston State vs. #4 Houston Baptist

#6 Lamar vs. #3 Stephen F. Austin

 

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th 

#4 Houston Baptist vs. #1 New Orleans

#3 Stephen F. Austin vs. #2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

 

Championship-Saturday, March 11th 

Stephen F. Austin has won this conference tournament for three years ago coming into this game. Brad Underwood may be gone, but the players still have experience winning games in succession to make the NCAA Tournament. I don't know if the Lumberjacks will be able to spring another upset, but they will still make the field. 

 

Houston Baptist 59, Stephen F. Austin 64

2017 Championship Week Primer: Pac-12

The Pac-12 has three legitimate Final Four contenders in Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. Those three teams might also be the only three teams that make the NCAA Tournament from this conference. Such stratification is rare in conferences for the most part, but the Wildcats, Ducks, and Bruins are miles ahead of the rest of the conference. Between the three of those teams, they had seven conference losses, with five of these losses coming from each other.

These teams are facing an interesting situation with NCAA Tournament seeding. Gonzaga looks to be the top seed in the West region at present and the committee won't stick all three of these teams and Gonzaga in the same region. Somebody is going to have to do some travelling and the Pac-12 Tournament provides a good opportunity to avoid that for one of these teams. Right now, Oregon has been getting the nod as the lone 2 seed of this group. Arizona and UCLA are trending on the 3 line at this point.

Elsewhere, only USC and California are looking at potential at large bids. USC started the season 14-0 and then went 9-8 down the stretch, including a four game swoon in the last three weeks of the season. The Trojans had been comfortably in the tournament before that, but now they are on the 11 line, which is dangerous territory for a bubble team. California is only showing up in a handful of bracket projections right now and will need a miracle run in this tournament and maybe need the automatic bid just to be safe.

All 12 teams in the conference will take place in the tournament with the top four seeds getting a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#9 Stanford vs. #8 Arizona State
#12 Oregon State vs. #5 California
#10 Washington State vs. #7 Colorado
#11 Washington vs. #6 USC

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th
#8 Arizona State vs. #1 Oregon
#5 California vs. #4 Utah
#7 Colorado vs. #2 Arizona
#6 USC vs. #3 UCLA

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th
#4 Utah vs. #1 Oregon
#3 UCLA vs. #2 Arizona

Championship-Saturday, March 11th
Oregon and UCLA split the season series in two thrilling games that were decided by a combined 5 ponits. Oregon will have the easier path to the final as UCLA will have had to go through Arizona to get to this game. I expect this to be wear down the Bruins and allow Oregon to nail down a trip to the West Regional as probably the 2 seed, possibly the 1 again.

UCLA 78, Oregon 85

2017 Championship Week Primer: Mountain West

2013 was a long time ago. The Mountain West was dominant that year, sending five teams to the NCAA Tournament. This is a very strong number for a mid major conference, but that was four years ago now. The Mountain West has fallen on hard times, with only one team, Nevada, even close to at large consideration. More likely than not, the winner of this tournament will be the only team to represent the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.

Nevada won the conference this year by a game over Colorado State. They are projected to be a 12 seed at present, which is nowhere near safe territory. The Wolfpack will almost certainly need to win the Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, especially in this year that is proving to be unfriendly to mid major teams.

All 11 teams will participate in this tournament with the top five teams getting a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place from March 8th to March 11th at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#9 San Jose State vs. #8 Utah State 
#10 Air Force vs. #7 Wyoming
#11 UNLV vs. #6 San Diego State

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th
#8 Utah State vs. #1 Nevada 
#5 New Mexico vs. #4 Fresno State
#7 Wyoming vs. #2 Colorado State
#6 San Diego State vs. #3 Boise State

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th
#4 Fresno State vs. #1 Nevada
#7 Wyoming vs. #6 San Diego State

Championship-Saturday, March 11th
If the Mountain West had had a stronger year, this championship game would mean that one of these teams would be stealing a bid. That is not going to be the case here as a semifinal loss will destroy whatever chance Nevada had of getting an at large bid. Between these two teams, I expect Fresno to win, as they have momentum going into the tournament winning five in a row. This momentum will carry them to the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State 54, Fresno State 59

2017 Championship Week Primer: Conference USA

Conference USA could've been devastated by realignment when most of their top teams were poached by the Big East  American Conference, leaving the conference scrambling to fill its ranks. It filled them and then some, with the conference ballooning to fourteen teams. One of the new teams staged one of the biggest upsets in tournament history last year when Middle Tennessee beat national title contender Michigan State in the Round of 64.

Middle Tennessee won the conference again this year handily, finishing three games above Louisiana Tech and only lost one game in conference play at UTEP. They are projected to be an 11 seed, which raises enough questions as to whether the Blue Raiders could get an at large bid. It is likely in this year where the committee seems to favor teams with strong SOS that Middle Tennessee will need the automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament.

The top 12 teams of the 14 team conference made the Conference USA tournament. The top four teams will get a bye to the quarterfinals. The entire tournament will take place from March 8th to March 11th at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#9 UTSA vs. #8 Western Kentucky
#12 Southern Miss vs. #5 Rice
#10 Charlotte vs. #7 UAB
#11 Florida Atlantic vs. #6 Marshall 

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th
#8 Western Kentucky vs. #1 Middle Tennessee
#5 Rice vs. #4 UTEP
#7 UAB vs. #2 Louisiana Tech
#6 Marshall vs. #3 Old Dominion

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th
#5 Rice vs. #1 Middle Tennessee
#6 Marshall vs. #2 Louisiana Tech

Championship-Saturday, March 11th
Middle Tennessee is the best team in the conference and should win the tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament. They will be a tough out again in the NCAA Tournament, though this team it'll be expected because of what the Blue Raiders did last year and the better seed they'll have this year.

Marshall 73, Middle Tennessee 80

2017 Championship Week Primer: Big East

Last year, Villanova spent most of the season being projected on the top line before suffering a swoon late in the regular season to fall down to the 2 line. Most people wrote off the Wildcats because of that, until...

At that point in the game where Villanova made the championship winning shot, the momentum had been with North Carolina as they had just made a strong comeback to tie the game with 4 seconds remaining. In my experience, more often than not, the team that stages that kind of comeback usually wins in overtime. The Wildcats headed off overtime with a last second shot that will go down in NCAA history.

Villanova won the Big East for the fourth year in a row. The next closest team was Butler a sizable three games behind the Wildcats. There was a four way tie for third between Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. The last team without a losing record is Xavier, who has ravaged by injuries and collapsed down to the bubble's edge.

Villanova, along with Kansas, is as solid as a 1 seed as one can get. Elsewhere, Butler is on the 4 line currently, Creighton is a 7 seed, and then everyone else that could get into the tournament is on the bubble. Marquette, Seton Hall, and Providence are 10 seeds right now, hardly safe territory with six days to Selection Sunday, and Xavier is in more dangerous territory on the 11 line. Any of these teams can be shown the exit if they fall out of the Big East Tournament early and especially if other bubble teams make a run.

The Big East Tournament will feature all ten teams of the conference with the top six seeds getting a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place from March 8th to March 11th at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

First Round-Wednesday, March 8th
#9 Georgetown vs. #8 St. John's
#10 DePaul vs. #7 Xavier

Quarterfinals-Thursday, March 9th
#9 Georgetown vs. #1 Villanova
#5 Seton Hall vs. #4 Marquette
#7 Xavier vs. #2 Butler
#6 Creighton vs. #3 Providence

Semifinals-Friday, March 10th
#5 Seton Hall vs. #1 Villanova 
#3 Providence vs. #2 Butler

Championship-Saturday, March 11th
Butler was able to beat Villanova twice this season by eight points each, giving the Wildcats two of their three losses on the year. You don't usually see the better overall team get lose to the same team twice, especially since Butler finished only 10-6 in the league against non-Villanova opponents. Butler can certainly win again, but sometimes the third time's the charm and that is what I expect here.

Butler 65, Villanova 73

Teams That Can Still Win a National Championship (Championship Week Day 8)

For the duration of Championship Week, teams will be sorted by conference. Teams that win their conference tournament will be placed in Bold. Teams that don't win their conference tournament, but are expected to be an at-large team will be in Italics. Teams considered safe will be a 9 seed or higher on Bracket Matrix. Teams on the bubble will have (?). The italics and (?) will only be used on teams that have already been eliminated from their conference tournament. Teams eliminated from national title contention will be shown will have their names crossed out for the night that they are eliminated only to show the difference from night to night.

Once the field of 68 teams is announced, the teams that can still win a national title will be sorted by NCAA region and be whittled down from there until on April 3rd when a champion is crowned.

America East
Vermont
Albany
Stony Brook
New Hampshire

American
Southern Methodist
Cincinnati
Houston
UCF
Connecticut
Memphis
Tulsa
Temple
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida

Atlantic 10
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Davidson
Fordham
Saint Louis
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Duquesne

ACC
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville
Notre Dame
Duke
Virginia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Clemson
North Carolina State
Boston College

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast

Big XII
Kansas
Iowa State
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech
Texas
Oklahoma

Big East
Villanova
Butler
Creighton
Seton Hall
Providence
Xavier
Marquette
St. John's
Georgetown
DePaul

Big Sky
North Dakota
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Idaho
Montana State
Montana
Sacramento State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Idaho State
Southern Utah

Big South
Winthrop

Big Ten
Purdue
Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Michigan
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Nebraska
Rutgers

Big West
UC Davis
UC Irvine
CS Fullerton
Hawaii
Long Beach State
CSU Northridge
Cal Poly
UC Riverside

Colonial
UNC Wilmington
Charleston

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Old Dominion
UTEP
Rice
Marshall
UAB
Western Kentucky
UT San Antonio
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Southern Miss

Horizon
Northern Kentucky
Milwaukee
UIC
Youngstown State

Ivy League
Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Penn

MAAC
Iona
Siena

MAC
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Buffalo
Ball State
Western Michigan
Toledo
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Miami (OH)

MEAC
North Carolina Central
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Hampton
Maryland-Eastern Shore
South Carolina State
Delaware State
Bethune-Cookman
Howard
Florida A&M
North Carolina A&T
Coppin State

Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Illinois State (?)

Mountain West
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Wyoming
San Jose State
Utah State
Air Force
UNLV

Northeast
Mount Saint Mary's
Saint Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State

Pac-12
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
California
Utah
USC
Arizona State
Colorado
Stanford
Washington State
Washington
Oregon State

Patriot
Bucknell
Lehigh

SEC
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Mississippi State
Missouri
LSU

Southern
East Tennessee State
UNC Greensboro

Southland
New Orleans
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Baptist
Sam Houston State
Lamar
Southeast Louisiana
Central Arkansas

SWAC
Texas Southern
Southern
Grambling
Jackson State
Prairie View A&M
Alabama State
Mississippi Valley State

Summit League
Omaha
South Dakota State
South Dakota
IUPUI

Sun Belt
UT Arlington
Arkansas State
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Coastal Carolina
UL Lafayette
Troy
South Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock
Appalachian State
Louisiana-Monroe

WAC
CSU Bakersfield
New Mexico State
UMKC
Seattle
Utah Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley
Chicago State

West Coast
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's
BYU
Santa Clara