I am not comfortable with severe weather. I never really was, given the inherent risks, but the near catastrophe that occurred in Wichita on May 19th, 2013, has put me on alert any time I catch of whiff of severe weather in the forecast in Eastern Kansas, which is the scope of my weather focus.
For those of you who don't know, or didn't see my lengthy retelling of what occurred last May 19th, I will summarize: a storm developed that had the potential for a catastrophic tornado and it passed right over the heart of Wichita. The tornado was even on the ground within the city limits at one point. Mercifully, however, the tornado was disrupted by the immense rainfall that accompanied it and the tornado was never on the ground while it passed over Wichita, but not through it.
It was damn, damn close to being an apocalyptic catastrophe though. Ever since then, I have been on the lookout and warning just in case there is any type of severe weather and likewise sending out various warnings depending on how bad it will be.
I write this because tomorrow, February 19th, will be our first brush with severe weather in Kansas this year. It speaks volumes about the absurdity of Kansas that a year ago on the 21st of February, Wichita received 14 inches of snow and experienced thundersnow and this year it may be hail at the same time, but I digress.
Today, the temperature across Kansas has risen into the 60s and 70s. There is not much in the way of moisture though, which is why there is such a high fire danger. However, tomorrow, the dew points will rise into the 50s due to a warm, moist air mass moving up from the south. There, however, will be a layer of cool air above this air mass and that creates instability, as the warm air tries to rise through the cool layer.
Something that is valuable in knowing how big severe storms may get is CAPE, or Convective available potential energy. It is a rough measure of how much instability there is in the atmosphere. A good example of this is when, on May 3rd, 1999, the CAPE over Oklahoma City was measured at 5,000 J/kg. Later that evening, an F5 tornado plowed Moore, Oklahoma.
The CAPE values in Kansas are expected to max out at 1,000 J/kg tomorrow. There will be enough instability and wind shear to create strong, rotating updrafts tomorrow night. Therefore, the National Weather Service has said that, "These factors support isolated severe storms with large hail being the primary threat."
Hail is the primary threat with this, as mentioned. The NWS says large hail, which is hail that is an inch or more in diameter, or in other words, severe thunderstorm sized hail. The NWS would issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a storm that has hail of an inch in diameter, or quarter-sized hail, and/or winds exceeding 58 mph. It stands to reason that there may be a Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued tomorrow.
These expectations call for the weakest kind of severe storms. For the more powerful, baseball sized hail, tornado spawning storms, it needs to have been warmer for longer than it has been. Still, this relatively weak system could a portent of what may occur later this Spring as far as severe weather potential goes though.
But for now...the cold will return. Following this system there are multiple chances of snow for Kansas over the next week. Winter has not relinquished its grip on us just yet, but when it finally does, I will be here with any information on severe storm potential.
