With all of the attention in the Democratic race for the White House focused squarely on Iowa and New Hampshire, it is easy to forget that those two races have comparatively little to offer in terms of available delegates. The four elections in the month of February have a combined 155 delegates up for grabs. The biggest haul of delegates awaits in March, with Super Tuesday having 1344 delegates being allotted in one day. Another 365 delegates will be decided a week after Super Tuesday.
When Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race by expressing dissatisfaction with the current field, he elected not to spend campaign funds in the four earliest races, but decided to build his campaign apparatus in the twenty states that comprise the lion's share of the available delegates on March 3rd and 10th.
Bloomberg appears to be getting some results from this strategy. In the Real Clear Politics polling aggregate for the Democratic nomination, Bloomberg has moved into fourth place behind Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. He is in fourth place in the 270toWin aggregate as well. While polling is relatively sparse outside of February's states, there are signs that Bloomberg is gaining some traction in some of the races in March.
A poll released today in Florida showed Bloomberg in second, albeit well behind Biden. This is significant though as this poll only showed Biden and Bloomberg above the 15% threshold which is required to received delegates in a primary. Even though Bloomberg was down significantly to Biden in the Sunshine States, he would get a disproportionate number of Florida's 219 delegates since there are only two candidates that would receive delegates in that primary. Similarly, a poll from last weekend showed Bloomberg in second place in Missouri as well, though below the delegate threshold at present.
If Bloomberg starts capturing delegates in the March primaries, that will make him a factor as the race moves towards the convention. In a year where a brokered convention has a better chance than normal of occurring, any delegates Bloomberg gains would be invaluable as leverage at convention. If his current trajectory continues, which is probable given his head start in advertising in the later races, the odds of a brokered convention will only increase.
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Uber vs Lyft: The Definitive Driving Guide
When I finally lost my patience with my last retail job, I decided to try my hand at ride share driving. I started with Lyft nearly two years ago and stuck with that service for well over a year. But I needed to make more money, so I decided to double up with Uber starting six months ago. I've now given roughly the same number of rides with both apps. so I feel confident in describing them.
User Interface
Both of these apps have decent user interfaces. For Uber, it is a simple matter of hitting the "Go" button to get started. For Lyft, it is the tapping the steering wheel at the top of the screen. Both Uber and Lyft allow you to accept or decline ride requests when they pop up. You can also see how much you've made that day and week in both apps fairly easily.
Both apps also show if you are in a high earning area, be that a Surge for Uber or a Personal Power Zone for Lyft. They also let you know how many people are in the queue for the nearest airport if you wanted to pick up a ride from there.
Navigation
Lyft runs their navigation through whatever navigation app suits your fancy, but the default is a somewhat watered down Google Maps. It's fairly good at updating for heavy traffic and accidents and suggesting alternate routes. Additionally, the navigation shows exactly where the passenger is in relation to the requested pickup point.
Uber's navigation is awful by comparison. The maps are out of date, including trying to send me down the same closed road on multiple occasions. Only on a handful of rides does it show where the passenger is as well. Both drivers and riders need to be wary of ordering an Uber from an apartment building because it will not send the driver to the correct apartment building more often than not.
Rate of Pay and Ride Volume
Uber and Lyft pay at the same rate, which is determined by the city the ride is originating from. The driver gets 75% of the ride fare, which is determined by the time and distance the ride goes. If a passenger is paying different between the two apps, it is because of the service fee both platforms charge that the drivers see nothing of.
In my experience, Uber gets far more ride volume than Lyft does. Last week, for example, I gave nearly 250 Uber rides and I think my record for Lyft doesn't crest 100. Since the rides pay at the same rate, I make far more money with Uber than Lyft on average as a result.
High Demand Pricing
Lyft used to have Prime Time pricing when it was busy, which was a percentage increase in pricing when it was busy. The highest I ever got was a ride that had an upcharge of 250%.
Now, however, they have replaced it Personal Power Zones. These are areas of higher priced rides, but they do not seem to be tied to actual busy times. I've seen them crop up on slow Monday evenings where there is no chance that a passenger would get a Lyft ride that has a five dollar upcharge when it is not busy. Conversely, these Power Zones do not crop up during actual busy times either, such as after a sporting event.
Uber just has basic surge pricing, which is active when it is busy. It is a basic dollar amount upcharge depending on how busy it is. If you are going to drive when it is busy, you will at least have a guarantee that Uber will have higher payouts, whereas Lyft's are unreliable at best.
Bonuses
I cannot say definitively which one is better here, but that is a function of the city I drive out of. Neither Lyft nor Uber have bonuses in my area with any consistency. It should be noted that Lyft did have a number of driving bonuses when I first started. These included automatic prime times during weekend evenings, and bonuses for completing a certain number of rides in a set time. I have not seen any of these in nearly a year, however.
Perks
Uber has a rewards program called Uber Pro. If you maintain a high driver rating and complete a certain number of rides, you can get Gold, Platinum, and Diamond status. I am a Diamond driver personally. I don't use many of the perks, other than a Gold reward that allows me to know how far and in what direction a ride is going.
Lyft used to have what it called Accelerate rewards, but these were suspended a few months ago. They announced a replacement program, but I haven't seen it implemented yet.
Both platforms, however, do offer discounts on Turbo Tax.
Driver Support
Part of being a Diamond driver for Uber gives me access to priority driver support and a dedicated phone line that I can call if I have any concerns. The last time I called them was when a ride fare was not showing up in my earnings and they assured me that the ride was documented and the earnings tab was just being slow on the uptake.
For the longest time, I thought Lyft had gotten rid of phone support for anyone, drivers and passengers alike. When I had a complaint, I had to send an email and a Lyft representative would respond within 24 hours. Oftentimes, the emails were useless, with the representative just spitting out Lyft policies that I, as a top-rated, highly experienced driver, already knew.
However, a couple of weeks ago, I had an incident so egregious that Lyft actually allowed me to talk to someone on the phone. A passenger had a two stop ride and on the first stop they picked up marijuana and brought it into my car. Both Uber and Lyft policies expressly forbid bringing drugs into cars and this case was especially bad because the passenger had gotten the pot during the ride.
I actually got a hold of somebody with Lyft on the phone and they assured me they would take care of it. Later, I got an email saying "appropriate action was being taken". Lyft had already given me such assurances in the past whenever I had a complaint and I refuse to believe they are going to do the right thing with this passenger, namely banning them from the service permanently.
In my experience, Uber has been a much better driving experience than Lyft and I have not even turned on Lyft since the above-mentioned incident. If you are aiming to get in ride-share driving, hopefully this guide will shed some light on which route to go.
User Interface
Both of these apps have decent user interfaces. For Uber, it is a simple matter of hitting the "Go" button to get started. For Lyft, it is the tapping the steering wheel at the top of the screen. Both Uber and Lyft allow you to accept or decline ride requests when they pop up. You can also see how much you've made that day and week in both apps fairly easily.
Both apps also show if you are in a high earning area, be that a Surge for Uber or a Personal Power Zone for Lyft. They also let you know how many people are in the queue for the nearest airport if you wanted to pick up a ride from there.
Navigation
Lyft runs their navigation through whatever navigation app suits your fancy, but the default is a somewhat watered down Google Maps. It's fairly good at updating for heavy traffic and accidents and suggesting alternate routes. Additionally, the navigation shows exactly where the passenger is in relation to the requested pickup point.
Uber's navigation is awful by comparison. The maps are out of date, including trying to send me down the same closed road on multiple occasions. Only on a handful of rides does it show where the passenger is as well. Both drivers and riders need to be wary of ordering an Uber from an apartment building because it will not send the driver to the correct apartment building more often than not.
Rate of Pay and Ride Volume
Uber and Lyft pay at the same rate, which is determined by the city the ride is originating from. The driver gets 75% of the ride fare, which is determined by the time and distance the ride goes. If a passenger is paying different between the two apps, it is because of the service fee both platforms charge that the drivers see nothing of.
In my experience, Uber gets far more ride volume than Lyft does. Last week, for example, I gave nearly 250 Uber rides and I think my record for Lyft doesn't crest 100. Since the rides pay at the same rate, I make far more money with Uber than Lyft on average as a result.
High Demand Pricing
Lyft used to have Prime Time pricing when it was busy, which was a percentage increase in pricing when it was busy. The highest I ever got was a ride that had an upcharge of 250%.
Now, however, they have replaced it Personal Power Zones. These are areas of higher priced rides, but they do not seem to be tied to actual busy times. I've seen them crop up on slow Monday evenings where there is no chance that a passenger would get a Lyft ride that has a five dollar upcharge when it is not busy. Conversely, these Power Zones do not crop up during actual busy times either, such as after a sporting event.
Uber just has basic surge pricing, which is active when it is busy. It is a basic dollar amount upcharge depending on how busy it is. If you are going to drive when it is busy, you will at least have a guarantee that Uber will have higher payouts, whereas Lyft's are unreliable at best.
Bonuses
I cannot say definitively which one is better here, but that is a function of the city I drive out of. Neither Lyft nor Uber have bonuses in my area with any consistency. It should be noted that Lyft did have a number of driving bonuses when I first started. These included automatic prime times during weekend evenings, and bonuses for completing a certain number of rides in a set time. I have not seen any of these in nearly a year, however.
Perks
Uber has a rewards program called Uber Pro. If you maintain a high driver rating and complete a certain number of rides, you can get Gold, Platinum, and Diamond status. I am a Diamond driver personally. I don't use many of the perks, other than a Gold reward that allows me to know how far and in what direction a ride is going.
Lyft used to have what it called Accelerate rewards, but these were suspended a few months ago. They announced a replacement program, but I haven't seen it implemented yet.
Both platforms, however, do offer discounts on Turbo Tax.
Driver Support
Part of being a Diamond driver for Uber gives me access to priority driver support and a dedicated phone line that I can call if I have any concerns. The last time I called them was when a ride fare was not showing up in my earnings and they assured me that the ride was documented and the earnings tab was just being slow on the uptake.
For the longest time, I thought Lyft had gotten rid of phone support for anyone, drivers and passengers alike. When I had a complaint, I had to send an email and a Lyft representative would respond within 24 hours. Oftentimes, the emails were useless, with the representative just spitting out Lyft policies that I, as a top-rated, highly experienced driver, already knew.
However, a couple of weeks ago, I had an incident so egregious that Lyft actually allowed me to talk to someone on the phone. A passenger had a two stop ride and on the first stop they picked up marijuana and brought it into my car. Both Uber and Lyft policies expressly forbid bringing drugs into cars and this case was especially bad because the passenger had gotten the pot during the ride.
I actually got a hold of somebody with Lyft on the phone and they assured me they would take care of it. Later, I got an email saying "appropriate action was being taken". Lyft had already given me such assurances in the past whenever I had a complaint and I refuse to believe they are going to do the right thing with this passenger, namely banning them from the service permanently.
In my experience, Uber has been a much better driving experience than Lyft and I have not even turned on Lyft since the above-mentioned incident. If you are aiming to get in ride-share driving, hopefully this guide will shed some light on which route to go.
Sunday, January 26, 2020
Shades of 1948 in 2020
Before Donald Trump, the biggest upset among Presidential elections in the post-war era belonged to Harry Truman's victory over Thomas Dewey in 1948. Dewey was widely expected to win the election over the incumbent Truman, so much so that the Chicago Daily Tribune ran a now infamous headline "Dewey Defeats Truman".
Truman won despite a split in the Democratic party that ended up costing him several Southern states to Strom Thurmond. Rather than take his predicted defeat lying down, Truman ran a spirited campaign. He made a particular target of the Republican-controlled 80th Congress, labeling them as "do-nothing". Dewey, in comparison, ran a comparatively safe campaign and declined to attack Truman.
The 80th Congress was not by any means "do-nothing". They passed a number of landmark bills, highlighted by the Marshall Plan. Truman did, however, catch the Congress flat-footed when he called a special session in July 1948 and dared them to pass the party platform adopted by Dewey. The "do-nothing" charge worked, as both the Senate and the House flipped back to the Democrats along with Truman's victory.
Donald Trump has taken to labeling the Democratic controlled House as "do-nothing", a charge he hopes stick heading into this year's election. Whether the charge is accurate does not matter any more than it did in 1948.
Since the 116th Congress began, the focus has been on investigating and impeaching Trump. Even the media has mostly peddled this line, with minimal focus on the House acquiescing to Trump's new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. This actually helps reinforce Trump's "do-nothing" charge by keeping the focus on the impeachment and not on any other legislation the House has passed.
Donald Trump knows how to energize his base, as he clearly demonstrated in 2016 when he promised to go to Washington to "drain the swamp". Blasting the Democratic House as "do-nothing" is an extension of this tactic and if 1948 is any indication, it could not only win Trump a second term, but also give his party the House back.
Truman won despite a split in the Democratic party that ended up costing him several Southern states to Strom Thurmond. Rather than take his predicted defeat lying down, Truman ran a spirited campaign. He made a particular target of the Republican-controlled 80th Congress, labeling them as "do-nothing". Dewey, in comparison, ran a comparatively safe campaign and declined to attack Truman.
The 80th Congress was not by any means "do-nothing". They passed a number of landmark bills, highlighted by the Marshall Plan. Truman did, however, catch the Congress flat-footed when he called a special session in July 1948 and dared them to pass the party platform adopted by Dewey. The "do-nothing" charge worked, as both the Senate and the House flipped back to the Democrats along with Truman's victory.
Donald Trump has taken to labeling the Democratic controlled House as "do-nothing", a charge he hopes stick heading into this year's election. Whether the charge is accurate does not matter any more than it did in 1948.
Since the 116th Congress began, the focus has been on investigating and impeaching Trump. Even the media has mostly peddled this line, with minimal focus on the House acquiescing to Trump's new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. This actually helps reinforce Trump's "do-nothing" charge by keeping the focus on the impeachment and not on any other legislation the House has passed.
Donald Trump knows how to energize his base, as he clearly demonstrated in 2016 when he promised to go to Washington to "drain the swamp". Blasting the Democratic House as "do-nothing" is an extension of this tactic and if 1948 is any indication, it could not only win Trump a second term, but also give his party the House back.
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