The Missouri Valley has had a fair amount of success in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, mostly spearheaded by Wichita State. The Shockers have won at least one game in each tournament of the past four years, including a Final Four run in 2013. The success has been shared by other Valley teams; Northern Iowa made a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2015 and were it not for a miraculous comeback by Texas A&M, would have again in 2016.
This year, the Missouri Valley might again post two bids. Wichita State, though their resume lacks quality wins, also has no bad losses. In KenPom rankings, Wichita State is ranked #10, along with their current position of #21 in the AP poll. Only the RPI ranking is lacking, with it only being #40. None of these things endanger Wichita State's at large chances, as they appear in all bracket projections save for two. They're averaging a #9 seed at present.
Illinois State's tournament hopes are a bit more tricky. Though their RPI rating is higher than Wichita State, they have damaging losses on their resume that make their at large chances more questionable. The Redbirds are averaging a #12 seed among bracket projections, which would put them roughly in the last four in. They may need the automatic bid to make sure they go dancing. There is a huge yellow and black road block in their way.
Since a January 14th loss at Illinois State, Wichita State has been on a vicious tear through the Valley. The Shockers have been averaging a margin of victory of over 20 points a game in their last 12 games since that loss and that includes a staggering 41 point win over Illinois State in Wichita. The Shockers had trouble finding their footing earlier in the season after losing three seniors from last year, but they will be a dangerously underseeded in the NCAA Tournament as they are peaking at the right time.
Illinois State and Wichita State tied for the Valley championship with 17-1 records. The rest of the Valley was miles behind, with Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois tying for third a staggering eight games behind the Shockers and Redbirds. Illinois State got the top seed over Wichita State because of their higher RPI.
The Missouri Valley Tournament will take place from March 2nd to March 5th in St. Louis, Missouri at the Scottrade Center. The top six teams received a bye to the quarterfinals.
First Round-Thursday, March 2nd
#9 Indiana State vs. #8 Evansville
#10 Drake vs. #7 Bradley
Quarterfinals-Friday, March 3rd
#8 Evansville vs. #1 Illinois State
#5 Loyola-Chicago vs. #4 Southern Illinois
#7 Bradley vs. #2 Wichita State
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Northern Iowa
Semifinals-Saturday, March 4th
#4 Southern Illinois vs. #1 Illinois State
#6 Missouri State vs. #2 Wichita State
Championship-Sunday, March 5th
With such a vast gulf between the top two teams and the rest of the Valley, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the two teams don't meet in the finals. With their tournament hopes possibly tied to the the automatic bid, it should make for an entertaining final. That Wichita State will win.
Wichita State 76, Illinois State 65
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