When Butler bolted for the new look Big East a few years ago, it left a power vacuum in the Horizon. The Bulldogs had had back to back national title game appearances in 2010 and 2011. When a conference loses a team like that, it hurts the prestige of the conference significantly. The last time that a Horizon team won an NCAA Tournament was Butler in the 2011 title game run, so it has been a while.
Valparaiso led the the conference for most of the season, but lost two crucial games to Oakland and then lost their season finale to Northern Kentucky to share the title with Oakland. Valparaiso is still showing up in about 60% of bracket projections as a 13 seed, while Oakland is in the other projections as a 14 seed. While upsets can happen on either of those seed lines, it doesn't appear favorable that either of these teams could spring an upset.
Of special note, this is the first year that Northern Kentucky is a full member of Division I and this is the first year that they will be eligible to advance to the NCAA Tournament should they win the tournament.
The Horizon League Tournament had a major restructuring this year. In past years, the top two teams in the conference got a bye to the semifinals, while the other 8 teams had to play through two rounds to get that far. This year, the tournament takes on a more standard 10 team format, with the top six teams getting a bye to the quarterfinals. The tournament will take place from March 3rd to 7th at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
First Round-Friday, March 3rd
#9 Youngstown State vs. #8 Cleveland State
#10 Milwaukee vs. #7 Detroit
Quarterfinals-Saturday, March 4th/Sunday, March 5th
#8 Cleveland State vs. #1 Oakland
#5 Wright State vs. #4 Northern Kentucky
#10 Milwaukee vs. #2 Valparaiso
#6 UIC vs. #3 Green Bay
Semifinals-Monday, March 6th
#4 Northern Kentucky vs. #1 Oakland
#3 Green Bay vs. #2 Valparaiso
Championship-Tuesday, March 7th
Oakland struggled in the first part of conference play, losing four out of five. For the rest of the season, they went on a nine game winning streak, which would be an eleven game winning streak were they to make the Horizon final. Part of that winning streak included a thirteen point win at Green Bay, so it is not hard to believe that the Golden Grizzlies could win again and make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 when they were a member of the Summit League.
Green Bay 61, Oakland 70
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