The first primary is in the books and I will discuss both the results and their implications here briefly.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump romped to another victory, gaining 86% of the vote. In a non-competitive nomination campaign, it was a bit of a surprise to see Trump get more votes now (120,000+) than he did in 2016 (100,000). Trump received more votes in both New Hampshire and Iowa than any incumbent President had received in previous primaries. In 2016, Trump received a record number of primary votes (14 million) and he may set a record for primary votes for an incumbent this year. If that is the case, he will be a tough opponent to beat for any Democrat.
Speaking of the Democrats, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary again. However, it was much closer than the polling going into the vote had been indicating. With 84% of precincts reporting at present, Sanders had a lead of 1.4% over Pete Buttigieg, and a 6.1% lead over third place Amy Klobuchar. In the RCP polling average heading into today, Sanders had had a 7.4% lead over Buttigieg. Sanders did not gain in the delegate race either, earning nine delegates, which is the same number that Buttigieg got. Klobuchar received the remaining six delegates available.
Sanders needed a somewhat commanding win to establish himself as the clear front runner before Mike Bloomberg becomes directly involved in the race next month. Barely winning New Hampshire, a state where he got 60% of the vote in the last primary, was not a good way to go about establishing himself as the candidate to beat.
Joe Biden looked like the front runner heading into the primary season and now it looks like he may not even survive the first month. I suppose it is not really a surprise, given that this is his third time running for President and he never won a primary in any of those campaigns. His flailing campaign hinges on the fact that he leads in the polling for minorities among Democrat candidates. If this fails to pan out in Nevada and South Carolina later this month, then Biden will be finished.
Klobuchar seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Biden's collapse. She moved into fourth place in the delegate count with her strong showing today. However, if she is to remain a viable candidate, she will need to finish strong in Nevada and South Carolina. It is difficult to imagine that she will be able to keep up this momentum going into March with Bloomberg lurking if she has a poor showing in those two states.
Elizabeth Warren will finish in fourth, which is an exceedingly poor showing given that she is from a neighboring state and her best support comes from the demographics reflected in New Hampshire. She is in third place in the delegate count for now, but she was fighting Sanders for the same voters. It is a fight she appears to be losing for now.
After this vote, the delegate share for the Democrats is as follows:
Buttigieg (22)
Sanders (21)
Warren (8)
Klobuchar (7)
Biden (6)
The next contest is the Nevada Democrat caucus on February 22nd. The Republicans do not have any more contests this month.
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